Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting global models indicate a nighttime minimum near 25°C in Tokyo on August 18, driving the 91% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent subtropical high pressure and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit radiative cooling while maintaining typical August humidity levels that support overnight temperatures in this range. Historical climatology for mid-August shows average lows around 24–25°C, aligning with the consensus. The primary uncertainty stems from potential shifts in cloud cover or localized precipitation, which could lower readings by 1–2°C if models trend wetter overnight; updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the measurement window will provide the clearest signals for any adjustment in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
25°C 91%
24°C 7%
23°C 1.7%
22°C <1%
НОВЕ
$10,281 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,281 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
91%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 91%
24°C 7%
23°C 1.7%
22°C <1%
НОВЕ
$10,281 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,281 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$422 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$1,160 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$1,078 Обс.
1%
23°C
$2,560 Обс.
2%
24°C
$1,035 Обс.
7%
25°C
$1,753 Обс.
91%
26°C
$429 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$559 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$676 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$318 Обс.
<1%
30°C or higher
$292 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting global models indicate a nighttime minimum near 25°C in Tokyo on August 18, driving the 91% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent subtropical high pressure and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit radiative cooling while maintaining typical August humidity levels that support overnight temperatures in this range. Historical climatology for mid-August shows average lows around 24–25°C, aligning with the consensus. The primary uncertainty stems from potential shifts in cloud cover or localized precipitation, which could lower readings by 1–2°C if models trend wetter overnight; updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the measurement window will provide the clearest signals for any adjustment in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,281Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting global models indicate a nighttime minimum near 25°C in Tokyo on August 18, driving the 91% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent subtropical high pressure and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit radiative cooling while maintaining typical August humidity levels that support overnight temperatures in this range. Historical climatology for mid-August shows average lows around 24–25°C, aligning with the consensus. The primary uncertainty stems from potential shifts in cloud cover or localized precipitation, which could lower readings by 1–2°C if models trend wetter overnight; updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the measurement window will provide the clearest signals for any adjustment in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$10,281Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting global models indicate a nighttime minimum near 25°C in Tokyo on August 18, driving the 91% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent subtropical high pressure and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit radiative cooling while maintaining typical August humidity levels that support overnight temperatures in this range. Historical climatology for mid-August shows average lows around 24–25°C, aligning with the consensus. The primary uncertainty stems from potential shifts in cloud cover or localized precipitation, which could lower readings by 1–2°C if models trend wetter overnight; updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the measurement window will provide the clearest signals for any adjustment in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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