Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight into September 14, promoting radiative cooling over Madrid's 655 m elevation but tempered by urban effects and a seasonal baseline low near 15.7°C. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustering around 17–20°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the 16°C-or-below outcome at 76.5% implied probability while assigning lower odds to warmer thresholds. Recent model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure, limiting variability, though minor forecast revisions ahead of the 24-hour window could shift trader positioning if cooling intensifies beyond expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
16°C or below 76%
18°C 31%
19°C 31%
17°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
76%
17°C
25%
18°C
31%
19°C
31%
20°C
14%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 76%
18°C 31%
19°C 31%
17°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Обс.
76%
17°C
$0 Обс.
25%
18°C
$0 Обс.
31%
19°C
$0 Обс.
31%
20°C
$0 Обс.
14%
21°C
$6 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$0 Обс.
1%
23°C
$0 Обс.
1%
24°C
$0 Обс.
1%
25°C
$0 Обс.
1%
26°C or higher
$0 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight into September 14, promoting radiative cooling over Madrid's 655 m elevation but tempered by urban effects and a seasonal baseline low near 15.7°C. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustering around 17–20°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the 16°C-or-below outcome at 76.5% implied probability while assigning lower odds to warmer thresholds. Recent model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure, limiting variability, though minor forecast revisions ahead of the 24-hour window could shift trader positioning if cooling intensifies beyond expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$6Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight into September 14, promoting radiative cooling over Madrid's 655 m elevation but tempered by urban effects and a seasonal baseline low near 15.7°C. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustering around 17–20°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the 16°C-or-below outcome at 76.5% implied probability while assigning lower odds to warmer thresholds. Recent model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure, limiting variability, though minor forecast revisions ahead of the 24-hour window could shift trader positioning if cooling intensifies beyond expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northeasterly winds overnight into September 14, promoting radiative cooling over Madrid's 655 m elevation but tempered by urban effects and a seasonal baseline low near 15.7°C. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustering around 17–20°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the 16°C-or-below outcome at 76.5% implied probability while assigning lower odds to warmer thresholds. Recent model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure, limiting variability, though minor forecast revisions ahead of the 24-hour window could shift trader positioning if cooling intensifies beyond expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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