Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
17%
30°C
33%
31°C
27%
32°C
12%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 33%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
32°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$158 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$46 Обс.
2%
28°C
$265 Обс.
6%
29°C
$443 Обс.
17%
30°C
$205 Обс.
33%
31°C
$190 Обс.
27%
32°C
$278 Обс.
12%
33°C
$81 Обс.
5%
34°C
$90 Обс.
2%
35°C
$105 Обс.
1%
36°C or higher
$117 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,978Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,978Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models place Tokyo's September 1 high in the 29–32°C range, driving the close market-implied probabilities across those outcomes as traders weigh slight differences in peak timing. This aligns with early September climatology, when residual summer warmth and high humidity typically sustain daytime maxima near 30°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Key variables include cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and wind patterns that can suppress or enhance the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble runs will refine the exact maximum ahead of market resolution, with limited historical precedent for extremes above 33°C this early in the transition period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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