Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Tokyo through mid-August 2026, driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending toward Honshu and supporting daily highs typically in the 29–32°C range. With the market showing closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C maxima on August 16, short-range forecast models reflect modest uncertainty around peak values, influenced by local factors such as urban heat island effects, humidity levels, and potential cloud cover or sea breezes that can moderate afternoon readings. Historical August averages near 30°C provide context, while upcoming JMA model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria for this single-day temperature threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
29°C 36%
30°C 32%
28°C 13%
31°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
13%
29°C
36%
30°C
32%
31°C
11%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 32%
28°C 13%
31°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$196 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$82 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$18 Обс.
1%
27°C
$468 Обс.
6%
28°C
$75 Обс.
13%
29°C
$4 Обс.
36%
30°C
$22 Обс.
32%
31°C
$26 Обс.
11%
32°C
$26 Обс.
5%
33°C
$70 Обс.
2%
34°C or higher
$22 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Tokyo through mid-August 2026, driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending toward Honshu and supporting daily highs typically in the 29–32°C range. With the market showing closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C maxima on August 16, short-range forecast models reflect modest uncertainty around peak values, influenced by local factors such as urban heat island effects, humidity levels, and potential cloud cover or sea breezes that can moderate afternoon readings. Historical August averages near 30°C provide context, while upcoming JMA model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria for this single-day temperature threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,008Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Tokyo through mid-August 2026, driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending toward Honshu and supporting daily highs typically in the 29–32°C range. With the market showing closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C maxima on August 16, short-range forecast models reflect modest uncertainty around peak values, influenced by local factors such as urban heat island effects, humidity levels, and potential cloud cover or sea breezes that can moderate afternoon readings. Historical August averages near 30°C provide context, while upcoming JMA model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria for this single-day temperature threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,008Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Tokyo through mid-August 2026, driven by a strengthened Pacific High extending toward Honshu and supporting daily highs typically in the 29–32°C range. With the market showing closely matched implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C maxima on August 16, short-range forecast models reflect modest uncertainty around peak values, influenced by local factors such as urban heat island effects, humidity levels, and potential cloud cover or sea breezes that can moderate afternoon readings. Historical August averages near 30°C provide context, while upcoming JMA model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria for this single-day temperature threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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