A developing cut-off low pressure system west of South Africa is driving cooler, unsettled conditions over Cape Town on September 14, with official forecasts from the South African Weather Service and multiple numerical models indicating a daily maximum of 16–18 °C under persistent cloud cover, northwesterly winds of 20–30 km/h, and periods of showers. This synoptic pattern suppresses daytime warming relative to the September climatological mean high of ~19 °C, keeping afternoon readings near or slightly below normal. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 17–19 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in peak temperatures, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover allow brief additional heating. Traders appear to weight the most recent model runs and historical analogs for similar cut-off lows, which rarely produce outliers above 20 °C under these conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 14?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 14?
18°C 38%
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
16°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
9%
17°C
25%
18°C
38%
19°C
19%
20°C
7%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 38%
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
16°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
14°C
$226 Обс.
2%
15°C
$83 Обс.
3%
16°C
$336 Обс.
9%
17°C
$1,940 Обс.
25%
18°C
$107 Обс.
38%
19°C
$1,922 Обс.
19%
20°C
$2,030 Обс.
7%
21°C
$158 Обс.
2%
22°C
$0 Обс.
2%
23°C or higher
$330 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A developing cut-off low pressure system west of South Africa is driving cooler, unsettled conditions over Cape Town on September 14, with official forecasts from the South African Weather Service and multiple numerical models indicating a daily maximum of 16–18 °C under persistent cloud cover, northwesterly winds of 20–30 km/h, and periods of showers. This synoptic pattern suppresses daytime warming relative to the September climatological mean high of ~19 °C, keeping afternoon readings near or slightly below normal. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 17–19 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in peak temperatures, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover allow brief additional heating. Traders appear to weight the most recent model runs and historical analogs for similar cut-off lows, which rarely produce outliers above 20 °C under these conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,132Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A developing cut-off low pressure system west of South Africa is driving cooler, unsettled conditions over Cape Town on September 14, with official forecasts from the South African Weather Service and multiple numerical models indicating a daily maximum of 16–18 °C under persistent cloud cover, northwesterly winds of 20–30 km/h, and periods of showers. This synoptic pattern suppresses daytime warming relative to the September climatological mean high of ~19 °C, keeping afternoon readings near or slightly below normal. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 17–19 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in peak temperatures, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover allow brief additional heating. Traders appear to weight the most recent model runs and historical analogs for similar cut-off lows, which rarely produce outliers above 20 °C under these conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,132Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A developing cut-off low pressure system west of South Africa is driving cooler, unsettled conditions over Cape Town on September 14, with official forecasts from the South African Weather Service and multiple numerical models indicating a daily maximum of 16–18 °C under persistent cloud cover, northwesterly winds of 20–30 km/h, and periods of showers. This synoptic pattern suppresses daytime warming relative to the September climatological mean high of ~19 °C, keeping afternoon readings near or slightly below normal. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 17–19 °C because ensemble guidance shows limited spread in peak temperatures, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover allow brief additional heating. Traders appear to weight the most recent model runs and historical analogs for similar cut-off lows, which rarely produce outliers above 20 °C under these conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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