Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and private models points to mostly sunny skies and southerly flow sustaining highs of 97–100°F in Austin on August 31, aligning with the market’s leading 98–99°F (57.5%) and 100–101°F (34.5%) bins. Late-summer ridge persistence and low precipitable water limit cloud cover and convective cooling, keeping surface temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 daily average of 94.6°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only slight variations tied to afternoon mixing depth and wind speeds around 5–10 mph. Historical analogs indicate that without an unexpected frontal passage or increased moisture, readings are unlikely to reach 102°F or drop below 96°F, supporting the current trader-implied probabilities ahead of final observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 34%
96-97°F 5%
102-103°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
5%
98-99°F
57%
100-101°F
34%
102-103°F
5%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 34%
96-97°F 5%
102-103°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$60 Обс.
<1%
90-91°F
$88 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$229 Обс.
<1%
94-95°F
$97 Обс.
1%
96-97°F
$359 Обс.
5%
98-99°F
$1,667 Обс.
57%
100-101°F
$519 Обс.
34%
102-103°F
$511 Обс.
5%
104-105°F
$133 Обс.
1%
106-107°F
$140 Обс.
<1%
108°F or higher
$140 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and private models points to mostly sunny skies and southerly flow sustaining highs of 97–100°F in Austin on August 31, aligning with the market’s leading 98–99°F (57.5%) and 100–101°F (34.5%) bins. Late-summer ridge persistence and low precipitable water limit cloud cover and convective cooling, keeping surface temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 daily average of 94.6°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only slight variations tied to afternoon mixing depth and wind speeds around 5–10 mph. Historical analogs indicate that without an unexpected frontal passage or increased moisture, readings are unlikely to reach 102°F or drop below 96°F, supporting the current trader-implied probabilities ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,943Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and private models points to mostly sunny skies and southerly flow sustaining highs of 97–100°F in Austin on August 31, aligning with the market’s leading 98–99°F (57.5%) and 100–101°F (34.5%) bins. Late-summer ridge persistence and low precipitable water limit cloud cover and convective cooling, keeping surface temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 daily average of 94.6°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only slight variations tied to afternoon mixing depth and wind speeds around 5–10 mph. Historical analogs indicate that without an unexpected frontal passage or increased moisture, readings are unlikely to reach 102°F or drop below 96°F, supporting the current trader-implied probabilities ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,943Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and private models points to mostly sunny skies and southerly flow sustaining highs of 97–100°F in Austin on August 31, aligning with the market’s leading 98–99°F (57.5%) and 100–101°F (34.5%) bins. Late-summer ridge persistence and low precipitable water limit cloud cover and convective cooling, keeping surface temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 daily average of 94.6°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only slight variations tied to afternoon mixing depth and wind speeds around 5–10 mph. Historical analogs indicate that without an unexpected frontal passage or increased moisture, readings are unlikely to reach 102°F or drop below 96°F, supporting the current trader-implied probabilities ahead of final observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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