**Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to “No” on another US sovereign downgrade before 2027** because the three major agencies have already adjusted ratings following Moody’s May 2025 move from Aaa to Aa1 (stable outlook), aligning the US at AA+/Aa1 across S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s. Persistent fiscal pressures—$39 trillion+ in debt, debt-to-GDP projected above 130% by the mid-2030s, and elevated interest costs—remain the core concern, yet agencies have signaled no immediate further action absent sharper deterioration or governance shocks. Recent budget negotiations and the absence of fresh negative data releases have supported stable outlooks, while the next potential catalysts (FOMC policy path, 2026 fiscal updates, or debt-ceiling developments) are not expected to trigger rapid additional notches in the near term. Market-implied odds therefore reflect the view that another downgrade would require material worsening beyond current consensus trajectories.