Trader sentiment positions a December 2026 FOMC hold as the leading outcome at 57.5% implied probability, driven by expectations that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.5-3.75% amid moderating inflation and steady labor market data. A 25 basis point hike at 38% reflects residual concerns over persistent price pressures, amplified recently by oil price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that briefly lifted September hike odds. FOMC dot plots show a divided committee with several members projecting at least one 2026 increase, yet CME FedWatch data and futures pricing underscore consensus for policy stability through year-end absent stronger growth or inflation surprises. Upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh CPI releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
57%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$550 Обс.
2%
25 bps decrease
$598 Обс.
5%
No change
$818 Обс.
57%
25 bps increase
$1,250 Обс.
38%
50+ bps increase
$572 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader sentiment positions a December 2026 FOMC hold as the leading outcome at 57.5% implied probability, driven by expectations that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.5-3.75% amid moderating inflation and steady labor market data. A 25 basis point hike at 38% reflects residual concerns over persistent price pressures, amplified recently by oil price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that briefly lifted September hike odds. FOMC dot plots show a divided committee with several members projecting at least one 2026 increase, yet CME FedWatch data and futures pricing underscore consensus for policy stability through year-end absent stronger growth or inflation surprises. Upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh CPI releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,788Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader sentiment positions a December 2026 FOMC hold as the leading outcome at 57.5% implied probability, driven by expectations that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.5-3.75% amid moderating inflation and steady labor market data. A 25 basis point hike at 38% reflects residual concerns over persistent price pressures, amplified recently by oil price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that briefly lifted September hike odds. FOMC dot plots show a divided committee with several members projecting at least one 2026 increase, yet CME FedWatch data and futures pricing underscore consensus for policy stability through year-end absent stronger growth or inflation surprises. Upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh CPI releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$3,788Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment positions a December 2026 FOMC hold as the leading outcome at 57.5% implied probability, driven by expectations that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.5-3.75% amid moderating inflation and steady labor market data. A 25 basis point hike at 38% reflects residual concerns over persistent price pressures, amplified recently by oil price spikes tied to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that briefly lifted September hike odds. FOMC dot plots show a divided committee with several members projecting at least one 2026 increase, yet CME FedWatch data and futures pricing underscore consensus for policy stability through year-end absent stronger growth or inflation surprises. Upcoming September and October meetings plus fresh CPI releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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