Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$289,259 Обс.
$289,259 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
42%
2 (50 bps)
22%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$289,259 Обс.
$289,259 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$102,227 Обс.
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,256 Обс.
42%
2 (50 bps)
$69,740 Обс.
22%
3 (75 bps)
$31,580 Обс.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Обс.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$289,259Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$289,259Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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