Persistent inflation, with year-to-date PCE readings near 3.6–4.1% and core measures at 3.3%, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, has shifted trader expectations toward modest 2026 rate hikes. The FOMC’s June projections lifted the median federal funds rate outlook to 3.8% by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting a more hawkish reaction function amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. This dynamic supports the market’s leading 43% implied probability on one 25-basis-point hike, while the 29.5% chance of no change captures uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases. Markets price roughly 40–65 basis points of tightening for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader capital reflecting these macro forces rather than prior cut expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.8%
$287,437 Обс.
$287,437 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
30%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.8%
$287,437 Обс.
$287,437 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$101,602 Обс.
30%
1 (25 bps)
$47,117 Обс.
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Обс.
23%
3 (75 bps)
$31,570 Обс.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Обс.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation, with year-to-date PCE readings near 3.6–4.1% and core measures at 3.3%, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, has shifted trader expectations toward modest 2026 rate hikes. The FOMC’s June projections lifted the median federal funds rate outlook to 3.8% by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting a more hawkish reaction function amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. This dynamic supports the market’s leading 43% implied probability on one 25-basis-point hike, while the 29.5% chance of no change captures uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases. Markets price roughly 40–65 basis points of tightening for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader capital reflecting these macro forces rather than prior cut expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$287,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation, with year-to-date PCE readings near 3.6–4.1% and core measures at 3.3%, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, has shifted trader expectations toward modest 2026 rate hikes. The FOMC’s June projections lifted the median federal funds rate outlook to 3.8% by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting a more hawkish reaction function amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. This dynamic supports the market’s leading 43% implied probability on one 25-basis-point hike, while the 29.5% chance of no change captures uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases. Markets price roughly 40–65 basis points of tightening for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader capital reflecting these macro forces rather than prior cut expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$287,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation, with year-to-date PCE readings near 3.6–4.1% and core measures at 3.3%, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, has shifted trader expectations toward modest 2026 rate hikes. The FOMC’s June projections lifted the median federal funds rate outlook to 3.8% by year-end under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting a more hawkish reaction function amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. This dynamic supports the market’s leading 43% implied probability on one 25-basis-point hike, while the 29.5% chance of no change captures uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases. Markets price roughly 40–65 basis points of tightening for the remainder of 2026, consistent with trader capital reflecting these macro forces rather than prior cut expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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