Persistent inflation readings near 2.5% and a stable labor market with unemployment around 4% have created balanced trader sentiment on a 2026 Fed rate hike, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability against any increase. Recent FOMC communications and Treasury yield movements indicate markets price in limited tightening risks amid moderating growth signals, distinguishing confirmed data from forward-looking projections. Key upcoming releases—the August employment report and September FOMC meeting—could shift odds by clarifying whether policy remains on hold or faces renewed hawkish pressures from price or wage trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
48% шанс
$7,603,639 Обс.
$7,603,639 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Так
48% шанс
$7,603,639 Обс.
$7,603,639 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation readings near 2.5% and a stable labor market with unemployment around 4% have created balanced trader sentiment on a 2026 Fed rate hike, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability against any increase. Recent FOMC communications and Treasury yield movements indicate markets price in limited tightening risks amid moderating growth signals, distinguishing confirmed data from forward-looking projections. Key upcoming releases—the August employment report and September FOMC meeting—could shift odds by clarifying whether policy remains on hold or faces renewed hawkish pressures from price or wage trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,603,639Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation readings near 2.5% and a stable labor market with unemployment around 4% have created balanced trader sentiment on a 2026 Fed rate hike, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability against any increase. Recent FOMC communications and Treasury yield movements indicate markets price in limited tightening risks amid moderating growth signals, distinguishing confirmed data from forward-looking projections. Key upcoming releases—the August employment report and September FOMC meeting—could shift odds by clarifying whether policy remains on hold or faces renewed hawkish pressures from price or wage trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,603,639Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation readings near 2.5% and a stable labor market with unemployment around 4% have created balanced trader sentiment on a 2026 Fed rate hike, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability against any increase. Recent FOMC communications and Treasury yield movements indicate markets price in limited tightening risks amid moderating growth signals, distinguishing confirmed data from forward-looking projections. Key upcoming releases—the August employment report and September FOMC meeting—could shift odds by clarifying whether policy remains on hold or faces renewed hawkish pressures from price or wage trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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