Recent inflation data, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures easing only modestly, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, underpin the 60% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, signals ongoing caution amid supply shocks and above-target price pressures. Futures markets reflect this by pricing gradual tightening toward 4% by late 2026, elevating the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC communications remain key near-term influences on these aggregated trader expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 60%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps increase 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
60%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 60%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps increase 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$245 Обс.
3%
25 bps decrease
$109 Обс.
15%
No change
$156 Обс.
60%
25 bps increase
$250 Обс.
24%
50+ bps increase
$109 Обс.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures easing only modestly, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, underpin the 60% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, signals ongoing caution amid supply shocks and above-target price pressures. Futures markets reflect this by pricing gradual tightening toward 4% by late 2026, elevating the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC communications remain key near-term influences on these aggregated trader expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$869Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures easing only modestly, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, underpin the 60% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, signals ongoing caution amid supply shocks and above-target price pressures. Futures markets reflect this by pricing gradual tightening toward 4% by late 2026, elevating the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC communications remain key near-term influences on these aggregated trader expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$869Дата завершення
Jan 27, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core measures easing only modestly, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, underpin the 60% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, signals ongoing caution amid supply shocks and above-target price pressures. Futures markets reflect this by pricing gradual tightening toward 4% by late 2026, elevating the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase while limiting cut probabilities. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC communications remain key near-term influences on these aggregated trader expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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