The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73%, within a 2026 range of roughly 3.92%–4.75% amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings. Persistent price pressures, elevated Treasury issuance from fiscal deficits, and rising term premia have capped downside moves despite prior Fed easing, keeping yields anchored above 4% for much of the year. Market-implied odds for further declines hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, plus FOMC communications on the policy path; any acceleration in disinflation or growth slowdown could pressure yields lower before 2027, while stronger-than-expected inflation or supply dynamics would likely limit the trough. Geopolitical oil shocks add near-term volatility to inflation expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$225,341 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 Обс.
3.9%
$44,197 Обс.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Обс.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Обс.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Обс.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 Обс.
2%
3.0%
$917 Обс.
2%
2.0%
$564 Обс.
5%
1.0%
$40,570 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73%, within a 2026 range of roughly 3.92%–4.75% amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings. Persistent price pressures, elevated Treasury issuance from fiscal deficits, and rising term premia have capped downside moves despite prior Fed easing, keeping yields anchored above 4% for much of the year. Market-implied odds for further declines hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, plus FOMC communications on the policy path; any acceleration in disinflation or growth slowdown could pressure yields lower before 2027, while stronger-than-expected inflation or supply dynamics would likely limit the trough. Geopolitical oil shocks add near-term volatility to inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$225,341Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73%, within a 2026 range of roughly 3.92%–4.75% amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings. Persistent price pressures, elevated Treasury issuance from fiscal deficits, and rising term premia have capped downside moves despite prior Fed easing, keeping yields anchored above 4% for much of the year. Market-implied odds for further declines hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, plus FOMC communications on the policy path; any acceleration in disinflation or growth slowdown could pressure yields lower before 2027, while stronger-than-expected inflation or supply dynamics would likely limit the trough. Geopolitical oil shocks add near-term volatility to inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$225,341Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73%, within a 2026 range of roughly 3.92%–4.75% amid resilient growth and sticky inflation readings. Persistent price pressures, elevated Treasury issuance from fiscal deficits, and rising term premia have capped downside moves despite prior Fed easing, keeping yields anchored above 4% for much of the year. Market-implied odds for further declines hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, plus FOMC communications on the policy path; any acceleration in disinflation or growth slowdown could pressure yields lower before 2027, while stronger-than-expected inflation or supply dynamics would likely limit the trough. Geopolitical oil shocks add near-term volatility to inflation expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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