US federal deficits remain elevated amid structural imbalances between mandatory spending on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, rising net interest costs, and revenues that have not kept pace. Congressional Budget Office projections released in early 2026 forecast a $1.9 trillion shortfall for fiscal year 2026, equivalent to 5.8 percent of GDP, with debt held by the public climbing from 101 percent of GDP that year toward 120 percent by 2036 under current law. Recent developments, including 2025 reconciliation legislation expanding defense and border funding while extending tax provisions, along with the aftermath of a late-2025 government shutdown, have added to borrowing needs. Debt has already surpassed $39 trillion, with no surplus in sight before the end of 2026. Midterm elections in November 2026 and any associated appropriations or debt-limit negotiations represent the primary near-term variables that could influence fiscal trajectories through the resolution window.