Elon Musk's established high-volume activity on X, averaging 15–20 posts daily through mid-August 2026 amid ongoing discussions around Grok, SpaceX, and Tesla, anchors trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for the August 20–22 window at 46% implied probability. Recent samples show multiple daily posts including replies and quotes on AI benchmarks and industry topics, with no major product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies flagged for the period that would push totals into higher brackets. The secondary <40 bin at 33% reflects potential moderation over the Thursday–Saturday stretch, consistent with historical patterns where weekend volume dips absent breaking news. Market-implied odds treat this as routine engagement rather than a catalyst-driven surge, underscoring the unpredictability of personal posting cadence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено40-64 46%
<40 33.0%
65-89 20%
90-114 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
<40
33%
40-64
46%
65-89
20%
90-114
4%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 46%
<40 33.0%
65-89 20%
90-114 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 22, 2026
<40
$323 Обс.
33%
40-64
$120 Обс.
46%
65-89
$71 Обс.
20%
90-114
$0 Обс.
4%
115-139
$676 Обс.
1%
140-164
$1,617 Обс.
1%
165-189
$3,141 Обс.
<1%
190-214
$620 Обс.
<1%
215-239
$120 Обс.
<1%
240+
$270 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established high-volume activity on X, averaging 15–20 posts daily through mid-August 2026 amid ongoing discussions around Grok, SpaceX, and Tesla, anchors trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for the August 20–22 window at 46% implied probability. Recent samples show multiple daily posts including replies and quotes on AI benchmarks and industry topics, with no major product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies flagged for the period that would push totals into higher brackets. The secondary <40 bin at 33% reflects potential moderation over the Thursday–Saturday stretch, consistent with historical patterns where weekend volume dips absent breaking news. Market-implied odds treat this as routine engagement rather than a catalyst-driven surge, underscoring the unpredictability of personal posting cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,958Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established high-volume activity on X, averaging 15–20 posts daily through mid-August 2026 amid ongoing discussions around Grok, SpaceX, and Tesla, anchors trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for the August 20–22 window at 46% implied probability. Recent samples show multiple daily posts including replies and quotes on AI benchmarks and industry topics, with no major product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies flagged for the period that would push totals into higher brackets. The secondary <40 bin at 33% reflects potential moderation over the Thursday–Saturday stretch, consistent with historical patterns where weekend volume dips absent breaking news. Market-implied odds treat this as routine engagement rather than a catalyst-driven surge, underscoring the unpredictability of personal posting cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Обсяг
$6,958Дата завершення
Aug 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's established high-volume activity on X, averaging 15–20 posts daily through mid-August 2026 amid ongoing discussions around Grok, SpaceX, and Tesla, anchors trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for the August 20–22 window at 46% implied probability. Recent samples show multiple daily posts including replies and quotes on AI benchmarks and industry topics, with no major product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies flagged for the period that would push totals into higher brackets. The secondary <40 bin at 33% reflects potential moderation over the Thursday–Saturday stretch, consistent with historical patterns where weekend volume dips absent breaking news. Market-implied odds treat this as routine engagement rather than a catalyst-driven surge, underscoring the unpredictability of personal posting cadence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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