Traders assign a 98.8% probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated repeated resilience through 2026 crises, including leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, sustained military exchanges with the United States and Israel, and large-scale protests met with effective security crackdowns. The Revolutionary Guards and Basij maintain control over key institutions with minimal reported defections, while economic pressures and sporadic demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated nationwide momentum capable of rapid regime change. Historical precedent and current institutional cohesion support the market’s assessment that collapse within the remaining weeks is improbable, though an unforeseen escalation in internal unrest or external military developments could still alter the timeline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% โอกาส
$1,967,520 ปริมาณ
$1,967,520 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
1% โอกาส
$1,967,520 ปริมาณ
$1,967,520 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.8% probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated repeated resilience through 2026 crises, including leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, sustained military exchanges with the United States and Israel, and large-scale protests met with effective security crackdowns. The Revolutionary Guards and Basij maintain control over key institutions with minimal reported defections, while economic pressures and sporadic demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated nationwide momentum capable of rapid regime change. Historical precedent and current institutional cohesion support the market’s assessment that collapse within the remaining weeks is improbable, though an unforeseen escalation in internal unrest or external military developments could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,967,520วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.8% probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated repeated resilience through 2026 crises, including leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, sustained military exchanges with the United States and Israel, and large-scale protests met with effective security crackdowns. The Revolutionary Guards and Basij maintain control over key institutions with minimal reported defections, while economic pressures and sporadic demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated nationwide momentum capable of rapid regime change. Historical precedent and current institutional cohesion support the market’s assessment that collapse within the remaining weeks is improbable, though an unforeseen escalation in internal unrest or external military developments could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,967,520วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.8% probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated repeated resilience through 2026 crises, including leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, sustained military exchanges with the United States and Israel, and large-scale protests met with effective security crackdowns. The Revolutionary Guards and Basij maintain control over key institutions with minimal reported defections, while economic pressures and sporadic demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated nationwide momentum capable of rapid regime change. Historical precedent and current institutional cohesion support the market’s assessment that collapse within the remaining weeks is improbable, though an unforeseen escalation in internal unrest or external military developments could still alter the timeline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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