Netanyahu leads this market at 39.5 percent because Israel’s October 27 parliamentary elections create a near-term exit window before 2027, with his coalition trailing in polls amid ongoing corruption proceedings, coalition fragility, and security debates. The tight 36.5 percent price on “none before 2027” reflects traders’ assessment that Netanyahu could still secure re-election or that other listed leaders face higher institutional barriers to rapid removal. Sánchez contends with Spanish corruption investigations that have eroded coalition support but lack an immediate electoral trigger. Zelenskyy, Erdoğan, Macron, and others register lower probabilities tied to fixed terms, wartime stability, or limited near-term political pressure. Separation in the market would likely require either an Israeli government collapse before year-end or clear confirmation that Netanyahu retains power into 2027.