Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs near 70–72°F on August 26, consistent with August climatology shaped by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% across the 69–83°F bins, as traders weigh typical coastal cooling against minor variability from haze or brief clearing. The 50% odds on 88°F or higher reflect low but non-zero tail risk if the marine layer weakens unusually, while the 2.5% on 84–85°F and sub-70% outcomes align with historical rarity of extremes under current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.