Russia and Ukraine agreed to a temporary pause in long-range strikes targeting each other's capitals, including Kyiv, for three days beginning around September 5, 2026, to facilitate travel and talks by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Putin directed Russian forces to halt strikes on Kyiv during this window, while Zelenskyy committed Ukraine to refraining from strikes on Moscow, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the broader conflict. This pause follows repeated Russian missile and drone barrages on Kyiv and surrounding areas throughout July and August, which frequently caused civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Traders assessing short-term targeting probabilities weigh this diplomatic arrangement against the pattern of sustained aerial pressure and the potential for rapid shifts once the envoys' visit concludes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Россия нацеливаться на Киев на...?
Будет ли Россия нацеливаться на Киев на...?
$27,740 Объем
10 сент. 2026 г.
5 сентября
2%
6 сентября
3%
7 сентября
8%
8 сентября
67%
9 сентября
74%
10 сентября
72%
11 сентября
71%
12 сентября
68%
13 сентября
71%
14 сентября
59%
15 сентября
58%
16 сентября
56%
17 сентября
56%
18 сентября
66%
19 сентября
57%
20 сентября
61%
21 сентября
56%
22 сентября
60%
23 сентября
56%
24 сентября
58%
25 сентября
60%
26 сентября
61%
27 сентября
65%
28 сентября
63%
29 сентября
68%
30 сентября
62%
$27,740 Объем
5 сентября
$9,130 Объем
2%
6 сентября
$6,232 Объем
3%
7 сентября
$3,577 Объем
8%
8 сентября
$482 Объем
67%
9 сентября
$116 Объем
74%
10 сентября
$56 Объем
72%
11 сентября
$28 Объем
71%
12 сентября
$41 Объем
68%
13 сентября
$28 Объем
71%
14 сентября
$25 Объем
59%
15 сентября
$41 Объем
58%
16 сентября
$25 Объем
56%
17 сентября
$45 Объем
56%
18 сентября
$35 Объем
66%
19 сентября
$28 Объем
57%
20 сентября
$743 Объем
61%
21 сентября
$47 Объем
56%
22 сентября
$27 Объем
60%
23 сентября
$47 Объем
56%
24 сентября
$27 Объем
58%
25 сентября
$28 Объем
60%
26 сентября
$107 Объем
61%
27 сентября
$27 Объем
65%
28 сентября
$52 Объем
63%
29 сентября
$248 Объем
68%
30 сентября
$97 Объем
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine agreed to a temporary pause in long-range strikes targeting each other's capitals, including Kyiv, for three days beginning around September 5, 2026, to facilitate travel and talks by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Putin directed Russian forces to halt strikes on Kyiv during this window, while Zelenskyy committed Ukraine to refraining from strikes on Moscow, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the broader conflict. This pause follows repeated Russian missile and drone barrages on Kyiv and surrounding areas throughout July and August, which frequently caused civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Traders assessing short-term targeting probabilities weigh this diplomatic arrangement against the pattern of sustained aerial pressure and the potential for rapid shifts once the envoys' visit concludes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Объем
$27,740Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine agreed to a temporary pause in long-range strikes targeting each other's capitals, including Kyiv, for three days beginning around September 5, 2026, to facilitate travel and talks by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Putin directed Russian forces to halt strikes on Kyiv during this window, while Zelenskyy committed Ukraine to refraining from strikes on Moscow, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the broader conflict. This pause follows repeated Russian missile and drone barrages on Kyiv and surrounding areas throughout July and August, which frequently caused civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Traders assessing short-term targeting probabilities weigh this diplomatic arrangement against the pattern of sustained aerial pressure and the potential for rapid shifts once the envoys' visit concludes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$27,740Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine agreed to a temporary pause in long-range strikes targeting each other's capitals, including Kyiv, for three days beginning around September 5, 2026, to facilitate travel and talks by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Putin directed Russian forces to halt strikes on Kyiv during this window, while Zelenskyy committed Ukraine to refraining from strikes on Moscow, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the broader conflict. This pause follows repeated Russian missile and drone barrages on Kyiv and surrounding areas throughout July and August, which frequently caused civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Traders assessing short-term targeting probabilities weigh this diplomatic arrangement against the pattern of sustained aerial pressure and the potential for rapid shifts once the envoys' visit concludes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы