Diplomatic efforts under the Trump administration have included multiple rounds of U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks at the envoy and delegation level in early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, yet these have produced no breakthrough toward a presidential trilateral summit. Bilateral contacts between Trump and each leader have continued, including around the July NATO summit, but Putin and Zelensky have not convened directly, and no joint three-way leaders' meeting has been scheduled or confirmed. Ongoing battlefield developments, stalled progress on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees, and competing priorities have kept the probability of such a gathering low through the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus reflects the absence of imminent catalysts or announcements that would alter this trajectory before the year-end deadline.