United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for the September 18–20 State Duma election due to its status as the ruling party in a tightly managed political system, combined with the mixed electoral rules that allocate half the seats through single-member districts. Recent developments include President Putin’s June decree setting the date, the party’s June congress where it explicitly aligned itself with the president, and the registration of party lists amid reports of limited opposition access in some districts. New People’s secondary standing in the market reflects polling trends showing it ahead of other non-ruling parties, while smaller shares for LDPR, KPRF, and others align with their historical performance under the 5% threshold and constraints on independent challengers. The three-day voting format and ongoing security measures further reinforce expectations of continuity in seat distribution.