**The tight trader consensus around the main contenders in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne reflects a competitive three-way dynamic in this Montreal riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** The incumbent, Guillaume Cliche-Rivard of Québec solidaire, captured the seat in the March 2023 by-election with 44.5% after the prior Liberal MNA resigned, capitalizing on strong local support in a historically Liberal-leaning urban district. Benoit Clermont, the new Liberal candidate with a background in media production and law, aims to reclaim the riding for his party, while CAQ candidate Anthony Lavoie seeks to build on the governing party’s broader provincial presence. Recent projections treat the outcome as a narrow LIB/QS toss-up, with limited movement since the writs were issued on August 27. Factors sustaining the closeness include the riding’s mixed partisan history on the new electoral map, the absence of dominant late-campaign signals, and Quebec’s multi-party fragmentation in urban Montreal seats. Further separation would likely require riding-specific polling shifts, stronger provincial momentum for any party, or standout local campaign events before nomination closes on September 17 and advance voting begins.