SpaceX’s Starship V3 debut on Flight 12 in May 2026 delivered mixed results that underpin the near-even 52.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2027. The new Raptor 3 engines, integrated hot-staging hardware, and Pad 2 upgrades advanced high-flight-rate design goals, yet both stages missed controlled return-to-launch-site burns, forcing ocean landings and highlighting ongoing challenges with engine relight reliability and thermal protection. Traders weigh SpaceX’s rapid test cadence and prior tower catches against the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, where repeated successful booster and ship recoveries plus minimal-refurbishment turnarounds must occur. Flight 13, expected within weeks, along with Florida launch attempts and any demonstrated rapid reuse milestones, could shift sentiment decisively.