SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9–10 3.0%
$493,114 Объем
$493,114 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
<5
33%
5-6
55%
7-8
7%
9–10
3%
11-12
3%
13–14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9–10 3.0%
$493,114 Объем
$493,114 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
<5
$99,154 Объем
33%
5-6
$113,820 Объем
55%
7-8
$158,488 Объем
7%
9–10
$61,502 Объем
3%
11-12
$8,397 Объем
3%
13–14
$9,172 Объем
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Объем
<1%
>16
$12,509 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$493,114Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$493,114Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's successful Version 3 Starship flights in May and July 2026, including Flight 13's deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites and improved booster performance, have reinforced trader confidence in a measured ramp-up of integrated test launches. These milestones, following earlier 2026 plans for orbital attempts and potential tower catches, position the 5-6 launch range as the consensus outcome amid ongoing vehicle production scaling and FAA licensing timelines. While rapid iteration on Raptor engines and flight profiles supports higher cadence potential, constraints around pad infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles cap aggressive projections, keeping higher bins like 7-8 at low implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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