NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ongoing Sentry monitoring have cataloged the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, confirming no known asteroid or comet on a trajectory capable of delivering 1-megaton impact energy in 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared surveys make the undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, while historical rates for this energy class remain extremely low. Trader consensus at 98.5% “No” reflects this exhaustive data. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely faint long-period comet spotted at the last moment or a late orbital revision, both of which would still require rigorous verification through NASA’s fireball repository or equivalent sources before altering resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
2% вероятность
$116,334 Объем
$116,334 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$116,334 Объем
$116,334 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ongoing Sentry monitoring have cataloged the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, confirming no known asteroid or comet on a trajectory capable of delivering 1-megaton impact energy in 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared surveys make the undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, while historical rates for this energy class remain extremely low. Trader consensus at 98.5% “No” reflects this exhaustive data. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely faint long-period comet spotted at the last moment or a late orbital revision, both of which would still require rigorous verification through NASA’s fireball repository or equivalent sources before altering resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$116,334Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ongoing Sentry monitoring have cataloged the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, confirming no known asteroid or comet on a trajectory capable of delivering 1-megaton impact energy in 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared surveys make the undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, while historical rates for this energy class remain extremely low. Trader consensus at 98.5% “No” reflects this exhaustive data. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely faint long-period comet spotted at the last moment or a late orbital revision, both of which would still require rigorous verification through NASA’s fireball repository or equivalent sources before altering resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$116,334Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ongoing Sentry monitoring have cataloged the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, confirming no known asteroid or comet on a trajectory capable of delivering 1-megaton impact energy in 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared surveys make the undetected arrival of a 50–100 meter body highly improbable, while historical rates for this energy class remain extremely low. Trader consensus at 98.5% “No” reflects this exhaustive data. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely faint long-period comet spotted at the last moment or a late orbital revision, both of which would still require rigorous verification through NASA’s fireball repository or equivalent sources before altering resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы