A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАвгуст 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
Август 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
>1.45ºC 42%
1.30–1.33ºC 41%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
41%
1.34–1.37ºC
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
40%
>1.45ºC
42%
>1.45ºC 42%
1.30–1.33ºC 41%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
$0 Объем
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Объем
41%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Объем
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Объем
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Объем
40%
>1.45ºC
$0 Объем
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы