Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
23% вероятность
$240,989 Объем
$240,989 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
23% вероятность
$240,989 Объем
$240,989 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$240,989Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$240,989Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to “No” because no event meeting the market’s strict qualifying criteria has occurred through mid-August 2026 despite numerous floods, earthquakes, and tropical cyclones documented by NOAA and USGS. Historical frequency of billion-dollar disasters shows variability year to year, and current atmospheric conditions plus ENSO-neutral patterns have not produced an outlier event exceeding typical thresholds for resolution. Recent model runs and observational data indicate continued moderate risk through year-end without a clear catalyst for a qualifying occurrence, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late-season intensification or seismic activity that could shift consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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