Widespread population immunity from prior infections and vaccination, combined with ongoing low-level SARS-CoV-2 circulation and effective global surveillance, drives the 96% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026. As of mid-August 2026, CDC data show infections growing across U.S. states with an Rt near 1.08, yet emergency department visits remain very low at 0.3% and hospitalizations stay minimal, consistent with WHO reports of stable, low global activity and no variants of concern meeting high-impact criteria. Seasonal summer waves occur but lack the scale or severity for pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from a novel, highly immune-evasive variant or zoonotic spillover, though current monitoring and preparedness make these unlikely before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНовая пандемия коронавируса в 2026 году?
Да
$23,240 Объем
$23,240 Объем
Да
$23,240 Объем
$23,240 Объем
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Widespread population immunity from prior infections and vaccination, combined with ongoing low-level SARS-CoV-2 circulation and effective global surveillance, drives the 96% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026. As of mid-August 2026, CDC data show infections growing across U.S. states with an Rt near 1.08, yet emergency department visits remain very low at 0.3% and hospitalizations stay minimal, consistent with WHO reports of stable, low global activity and no variants of concern meeting high-impact criteria. Seasonal summer waves occur but lack the scale or severity for pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from a novel, highly immune-evasive variant or zoonotic spillover, though current monitoring and preparedness make these unlikely before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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