SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success with the V3 Starship design—featuring improved Raptor relights, heatshield performance, and Starlink V3 deployment—has sustained trader optimism around achieving full reusability by end-2026. The market sits near even odds because booster tower catches have been demonstrated, yet the upper stage ship has not, with key challenges remaining in controlled reentry, precise landing burns, and regulatory approval for tower recovery attempts. Flight 14, targeted for late August, could prove decisive if it delivers the first ship catch alongside orbital payload operations, while any delays or anomalies in rapid turnaround testing would likely shift sentiment against a 2026 resolution.