Recent successful Starship test flights, including multiple booster catch attempts and improved heat shield performance during reentry, have driven the 73% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. SpaceX's iterative development approach, combined with rapid hardware iteration and expanding launch cadence, supports trader consensus that the company can achieve rapid reuse of both booster and ship within the timeframe. Key upcoming catalysts include additional integrated flight tests, FAA regulatory milestones for higher flight rates, and demonstrations of propellant transfer or in-orbit refueling capabilities. While timelines in aerospace development carry inherent uncertainty due to technical and regulatory factors, the demonstrated progress in recovery systems and vehicle reliability continues to underpin the current sentiment.