xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, positioning the 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts model as the successor to Grok 4.5, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets both slipped without a release. Traders have adjusted implied probabilities accordingly, with markets now centering around a late-2026 window after xAI accelerated incremental flagship updates including Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August. The Colossus 2 supercluster continues scaling training, while Musk has highlighted upcoming Grok 4.7 in September and emphasized engineering-focused data from SpaceX. Competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid smaller-model drops, remain the key swing factors that could further shift resolution odds for any specific deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 5 выпустил...?
Grok 5 выпустил...?
$11,025 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября
10%
30 ноября
27%
31 декабря
64%
$11,025 Объем
31 октября
$1,847 Объем
10%
30 ноября
$614 Объем
27%
31 декабря
$3,487 Объем
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, positioning the 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts model as the successor to Grok 4.5, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets both slipped without a release. Traders have adjusted implied probabilities accordingly, with markets now centering around a late-2026 window after xAI accelerated incremental flagship updates including Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August. The Colossus 2 supercluster continues scaling training, while Musk has highlighted upcoming Grok 4.7 in September and emphasized engineering-focused data from SpaceX. Competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid smaller-model drops, remain the key swing factors that could further shift resolution odds for any specific deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$11,025Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, positioning the 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts model as the successor to Grok 4.5, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets both slipped without a release. Traders have adjusted implied probabilities accordingly, with markets now centering around a late-2026 window after xAI accelerated incremental flagship updates including Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August. The Colossus 2 supercluster continues scaling training, while Musk has highlighted upcoming Grok 4.7 in September and emphasized engineering-focused data from SpaceX. Competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid smaller-model drops, remain the key swing factors that could further shift resolution odds for any specific deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$11,025Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 Series E round, positioning the 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts model as the successor to Grok 4.5, yet earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets both slipped without a release. Traders have adjusted implied probabilities accordingly, with markets now centering around a late-2026 window after xAI accelerated incremental flagship updates including Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August. The Colossus 2 supercluster continues scaling training, while Musk has highlighted upcoming Grok 4.7 in September and emphasized engineering-focused data from SpaceX. Competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus xAI’s pattern of rapid smaller-model drops, remain the key swing factors that could further shift resolution odds for any specific deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы