Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated reasoning model, trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without third-party distillation, serves as the main driver of trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model with 256K context demonstrated competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks while earning human preference over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, accelerating Microsoft's push for in-house AI independence from OpenAI. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in August 2026 further solidified its status, with ongoing integrations into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure Foundry shaping adoption expectations. Upcoming catalysts include potential production releases, expanded benchmarks, or new variants that could influence resolution criteria around capability thresholds or deployment timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
September 30
25%
December 31
54%
$489 Объем
September 30
$188 Объем
25%
December 31
$301 Объем
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated reasoning model, trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without third-party distillation, serves as the main driver of trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model with 256K context demonstrated competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks while earning human preference over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, accelerating Microsoft's push for in-house AI independence from OpenAI. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in August 2026 further solidified its status, with ongoing integrations into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure Foundry shaping adoption expectations. Upcoming catalysts include potential production releases, expanded benchmarks, or new variants that could influence resolution criteria around capability thresholds or deployment timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated reasoning model, trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without third-party distillation, serves as the main driver of trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model with 256K context demonstrated competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks while earning human preference over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, accelerating Microsoft's push for in-house AI independence from OpenAI. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in August 2026 further solidified its status, with ongoing integrations into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure Foundry shaping adoption expectations. Upcoming catalysts include potential production releases, expanded benchmarks, or new variants that could influence resolution criteria around capability thresholds or deployment timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated reasoning model, trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without third-party distillation, serves as the main driver of trader sentiment. The 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE model with 256K context demonstrated competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks while earning human preference over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations, accelerating Microsoft's push for in-house AI independence from OpenAI. Public preview availability on Microsoft Foundry in August 2026 further solidified its status, with ongoing integrations into Copilot, GitHub, and Azure Foundry shaping adoption expectations. Upcoming catalysts include potential production releases, expanded benchmarks, or new variants that could influence resolution criteria around capability thresholds or deployment timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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