**Savo Minić leads the Republika Srpska presidential race at 63% implied probability as the SNSD nominee and sitting prime minister, while main opposition candidate Branko Blanuša trails at 38.5% and a long list of Bosniak and Croat candidates register single-digit chances.** The ruling party’s organizational strength and control of entity institutions provide the primary advantage ahead of the October 4 general election. Opposition parties consolidated behind the SDS candidate in July, yet the fragmented field of independents and minority-community nominees continues to split the remaining vote. Candidate certification by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Central Election Commission in mid-August formalized the ballot and removed procedural uncertainty. Traders price in SNSD continuity as the baseline scenario while assigning limited upside to opposition unity in the short campaign window that remains.