Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on August 26 near 26–28°C under continued subtropical high influence, with light easterly winds, high humidity near 80%, and partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions sustain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer urban environments, where the heat island effect further moderates temperature drops. Market-implied odds favor 27°C or 26°C because recent runs show only modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind, with slight differences in expected cloud timing able to shift the exact minimum by 1°C. Historical August climatology places average lows near 25°C, but current persistence of warm advection keeps probabilities concentrated above that baseline ahead of any late-month frontal change.