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icon for Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?
Политика·Израиль

Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?

icon for Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?
Политика·Израиль

Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?

янв. 1, 2027

янв. 1, 2027

4 86.1%

6 7.2%

5 4.5%

8 1.1%

Polymarket

$7,414,858 Объем

4 86.1%

6 7.2%

5 4.5%

8 1.1%

Polymarket

$7,414,858 Объем

4

$1,234,678 Объем

86%

5

$548,410 Объем

5%

6

$651,961 Объем

7%

7

$618,928 Объем

1%

8

$530,793 Объем

1%

9

$237,232 Объем

1%

10

$401,009 Объем

1%

11

$137,830 Объем

<1%

12

$227,789 Объем

<1%

13

$352,898 Объем

<1%

14

$191,476 Объем

<1%

15+

$193,347 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on Iran and Lebanon following the February launch of major joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent exchanges.** Traders assign an 86.1% implied probability to exactly four countries struck for the full year, reflecting sustained but contained activity in these primary theaters alongside ongoing lower-intensity strikes in southern Lebanon amid repeated ceasefire violations. A June flare-up produced additional Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and economic sites before both sides halted direct attacks under U.S. pressure. Limited reports of activity in Syria continue from prior years, while no verified escalations have occurred against additional states such as Yemen or Iraq. Market pricing aligns with the absence of new fronts or broad regional expansion since the spring ceasefire framework, with only modest probabilities assigned to five or six countries.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,414,858
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on Iran and Lebanon following the February launch of major joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent exchanges.** Traders assign an 86.1% implied probability to exactly four countries struck for the full year, reflecting sustained but contained activity in these primary theaters alongside ongoing lower-intensity strikes in southern Lebanon amid repeated ceasefire violations. A June flare-up produced additional Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and economic sites before both sides halted direct attacks under U.S. pressure. Limited reports of activity in Syria continue from prior years, while no verified escalations have occurred against additional states such as Yemen or Iraq. Market pricing aligns with the absence of new fronts or broad regional expansion since the spring ceasefire framework, with only modest probabilities assigned to five or six countries.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,414,858
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Будет ли США наносить удары по 8 странам в 2026 году?

Будет ли США наносить удары по 8 странам в 2026 году?

61%
Да
icon for Сможет ли Индия нанести удар по Пакистану к 31 декабря 2026 года?

Сможет ли Индия нанести удар по Пакистану к 31 декабря 2026 года?

14%
Да
icon for Удар США по Мексике до 31 декабря?

Удар США по Мексике до 31 декабря?

10%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 16 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «4» с 86%, за ним следует «6» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 86¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 86%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $7.4 million с момента запуска рынка Nov 13, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?», просмотри 16 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?» — «4» с 86%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 86%. Следующий ближайший исход — «6» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сколько разных стран ударит Израиль в 2026 году?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.