**Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of former Rep. Eric Swalwell by September 30, reflected in the 91.6% implied probability on "No."** Ongoing federal, New York, and California investigations into sexual misconduct allegations—stemming from reporting that prompted his April 2026 congressional resignation and withdrawal from the California governor's race—have produced search warrants and device seizures in mid-August but no charges or arrest. Federal agents used civil rights statutes to examine conduct tied to his former official role, seizing an iPhone and MacBook at San Francisco airport and searching his Washington residence, yet prosecutors have not advanced to an arrest. With roughly three weeks remaining in the resolution window and no reported charging decisions or imminent enforcement actions, the short timeline and typical pace of such probes support the current market positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of former Rep. Eric Swalwell by September 30, reflected in the 91.6% implied probability on "No."**
Ongoing federal, New York, and California investigations into sexual misconduct allegations—stemming from reporting that prompted his April 2026 congressional resignation and withdrawal from the California governor's race—have produced search warrants and device seizures in mid-August but no charges or arrest. Federal agents used civil rights statutes to examine conduct tied to his former official role, seizing an iPhone and MacBook at San Francisco airport and searching his Washington residence, yet prosecutors have not advanced to an arrest. With roughly three weeks remaining in the resolution window and no reported charging decisions or imminent enforcement actions, the short timeline and typical pace of such probes support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of former Rep. Eric Swalwell by September 30, reflected in the 91.6% implied probability on "No."**
Ongoing federal, New York, and California investigations into sexual misconduct allegations—stemming from reporting that prompted his April 2026 congressional resignation and withdrawal from the California governor's race—have produced search warrants and device seizures in mid-August but no charges or arrest. Federal agents used civil rights statutes to examine conduct tied to his former official role, seizing an iPhone and MacBook at San Francisco airport and searching his Washington residence, yet prosecutors have not advanced to an arrest. With roughly three weeks remaining in the resolution window and no reported charging decisions or imminent enforcement actions, the short timeline and typical pace of such probes support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no arrest of former Rep. Eric Swalwell by September 30, reflected in the 91.6% implied probability on "No."** Ongoing federal, New York, and California investigations into sexual misconduct allegations—stemming from reporting that prompted his April 2026 congressional resignation and withdrawal from the California governor's race—have produced search warrants and device seizures in mid-August but no charges or arrest. Federal agents used civil rights statutes to examine conduct tied to his former official role, seizing an iPhone and MacBook at San Francisco airport and searching his Washington residence, yet prosecutors have not advanced to an arrest. With roughly three weeks remaining in the resolution window and no reported charging decisions or imminent enforcement actions, the short timeline and typical pace of such probes support the current market positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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