Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, have reinforced centralized control and removed potential rivals ahead of 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption campaigns across the military and party structures, combined with the absence of verified factional challenges or organized resistance, underpin trader consensus that a coup attempt remains unlikely. The closed political system and emphasis on loyalty have historically contained internal threats. Even so, sudden leadership health events, an acute external crisis that fractures elite unity, or undetected factional maneuvering could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$154,289 Объем
$154,289 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$154,289 Объем
$154,289 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, have reinforced centralized control and removed potential rivals ahead of 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption campaigns across the military and party structures, combined with the absence of verified factional challenges or organized resistance, underpin trader consensus that a coup attempt remains unlikely. The closed political system and emphasis on loyalty have historically contained internal threats. Even so, sudden leadership health events, an acute external crisis that fractures elite unity, or undetected factional maneuvering could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$154,289Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, have reinforced centralized control and removed potential rivals ahead of 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption campaigns across the military and party structures, combined with the absence of verified factional challenges or organized resistance, underpin trader consensus that a coup attempt remains unlikely. The closed political system and emphasis on loyalty have historically contained internal threats. Even so, sudden leadership health events, an acute external crisis that fractures elite unity, or undetected factional maneuvering could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$154,289Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia on discipline violations, have reinforced centralized control and removed potential rivals ahead of 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption campaigns across the military and party structures, combined with the absence of verified factional challenges or organized resistance, underpin trader consensus that a coup attempt remains unlikely. The closed political system and emphasis on loyalty have historically contained internal threats. Even so, sudden leadership health events, an acute external crisis that fractures elite unity, or undetected factional maneuvering could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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