Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-33 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-33 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,301 Объем
$15,301 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
7%
$15,301 Объем
$15,301 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$5,853 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$9,448 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Объем
$15,301Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$15,301Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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