MLSTP–PSD holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the parliamentary election market, driven by its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round re-election victory in July 2026. That outcome followed the president’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada amid governance disputes, shifting momentum toward the MLSTP-aligned executive. ADI, polling at just 4%, faces internal strains and reduced legislative leverage after losing the presidency it had previously supported. With voting set for 27 September across 55 proportional-representation seats, traders view MLSTP’s organizational strength and recent electoral success as decisive advantages. A late surge by ADI or an unexpected coalition realignment among smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN or Basta could narrow the margin, though current pricing assigns those outcomes minimal weight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor das Eleições Parlamentares de São Tomé e Príncipe
Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares de São Tomé e Príncipe
MLSTP 92%
ADI 4%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$16,077 Vol.
$16,077 Vol.
26 set 2026
MLSTP
92%
ADI
4%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
MDFM
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
MLSTP 92%
ADI 4%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$16,077 Vol.
$16,077 Vol.
26 set 2026
MLSTP
$7,677 Vol.
92%
ADI
$5,024 Vol.
4%
Basta
$1,028 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$612 Vol.
<1%
MDFM
$662 Vol.
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$537 Vol.
<1%
Nossa Terra
$537 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.MLSTP–PSD holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the parliamentary election market, driven by its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round re-election victory in July 2026. That outcome followed the president’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada amid governance disputes, shifting momentum toward the MLSTP-aligned executive. ADI, polling at just 4%, faces internal strains and reduced legislative leverage after losing the presidency it had previously supported. With voting set for 27 September across 55 proportional-representation seats, traders view MLSTP’s organizational strength and recent electoral success as decisive advantages. A late surge by ADI or an unexpected coalition realignment among smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN or Basta could narrow the margin, though current pricing assigns those outcomes minimal weight.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$16,077Data de Término
27 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.MLSTP–PSD holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the parliamentary election market, driven by its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round re-election victory in July 2026. That outcome followed the president’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada amid governance disputes, shifting momentum toward the MLSTP-aligned executive. ADI, polling at just 4%, faces internal strains and reduced legislative leverage after losing the presidency it had previously supported. With voting set for 27 September across 55 proportional-representation seats, traders view MLSTP’s organizational strength and recent electoral success as decisive advantages. A late surge by ADI or an unexpected coalition realignment among smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN or Basta could narrow the margin, though current pricing assigns those outcomes minimal weight.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$16,077Data de Término
27 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...MLSTP–PSD holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the parliamentary election market, driven by its decisive backing of President Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round re-election victory in July 2026. That outcome followed the president’s 2025 dismissal of ADI Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada amid governance disputes, shifting momentum toward the MLSTP-aligned executive. ADI, polling at just 4%, faces internal strains and reduced legislative leverage after losing the presidency it had previously supported. With voting set for 27 September across 55 proportional-representation seats, traders view MLSTP’s organizational strength and recent electoral success as decisive advantages. A late surge by ADI or an unexpected coalition realignment among smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN or Basta could narrow the margin, though current pricing assigns those outcomes minimal weight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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