**High-pressure dominance and warm advection from southern Europe are positioning Paris for a peak temperature centered near 31–33°C on August 4, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting tight model spread in the latest ensemble runs.** Météo-France and ECMWF guidance indicate sustained subsidence and northerly flow of subtropical air, keeping skies mostly clear and limiting daytime mixing. This setup favors the observed clustering around 32°C (33.5%) as the modal outcome, followed closely by 31°C and 33°C. Subtle differences among these hinges on exact timing of any weak Atlantic front, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect measured at Paris-Montsouris. Recent summer 2026 heat episodes have elevated baseline soil and boundary-layer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of sub-30°C readings while capping upside risk below 35°C absent an unexpected Saharan plume. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Paris no dia 4 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Paris no dia 4 de agosto?
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 10%
NOVO
NOVO
4 ago 2026
29°C or below
3%
30°C
7%
31°C
26%
32°C
34%
33°C
24%
34°C
10%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 10%
NOVO
NOVO
4 ago 2026
29°C or below
$146 Vol.
3%
30°C
$31 Vol.
7%
31°C
$55 Vol.
26%
32°C
$246 Vol.
34%
33°C
$59 Vol.
24%
34°C
$75 Vol.
10%
35°C
$67 Vol.
2%
36°C
$36 Vol.
1%
37°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High-pressure dominance and warm advection from southern Europe are positioning Paris for a peak temperature centered near 31–33°C on August 4, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting tight model spread in the latest ensemble runs.**
Météo-France and ECMWF guidance indicate sustained subsidence and northerly flow of subtropical air, keeping skies mostly clear and limiting daytime mixing. This setup favors the observed clustering around 32°C (33.5%) as the modal outcome, followed closely by 31°C and 33°C. Subtle differences among these hinges on exact timing of any weak Atlantic front, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect measured at Paris-Montsouris.
Recent summer 2026 heat episodes have elevated baseline soil and boundary-layer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of sub-30°C readings while capping upside risk below 35°C absent an unexpected Saharan plume. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$792Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High-pressure dominance and warm advection from southern Europe are positioning Paris for a peak temperature centered near 31–33°C on August 4, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting tight model spread in the latest ensemble runs.**
Météo-France and ECMWF guidance indicate sustained subsidence and northerly flow of subtropical air, keeping skies mostly clear and limiting daytime mixing. This setup favors the observed clustering around 32°C (33.5%) as the modal outcome, followed closely by 31°C and 33°C. Subtle differences among these hinges on exact timing of any weak Atlantic front, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect measured at Paris-Montsouris.
Recent summer 2026 heat episodes have elevated baseline soil and boundary-layer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of sub-30°C readings while capping upside risk below 35°C absent an unexpected Saharan plume. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$792Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High-pressure dominance and warm advection from southern Europe are positioning Paris for a peak temperature centered near 31–33°C on August 4, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting tight model spread in the latest ensemble runs.** Météo-France and ECMWF guidance indicate sustained subsidence and northerly flow of subtropical air, keeping skies mostly clear and limiting daytime mixing. This setup favors the observed clustering around 32°C (33.5%) as the modal outcome, followed closely by 31°C and 33°C. Subtle differences among these hinges on exact timing of any weak Atlantic front, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect measured at Paris-Montsouris. Recent summer 2026 heat episodes have elevated baseline soil and boundary-layer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of sub-30°C readings while capping upside risk below 35°C absent an unexpected Saharan plume. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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