Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, aligning with consensus and leaving services-driven price pressures elevated well above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. This outcome, alongside mixed CPI and PPI readings, has kept trader probabilities nearly even between 0.2% and 0.3% for August, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation is stabilizing or showing modest moderation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and consumption trends point to a similar range, while the September 30 release precedes the FOMC meeting and could influence rate-hike expectations priced into Treasury yields and the dollar. Persistent stickiness in core measures continues to anchor market-implied odds around these two outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0.3% 38%
0.2% 37%
0.4% 21%
0.1% 11%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
≤-0.1%
7%
0.0%
7%
0.1%
11%
0.2%
37%
0.3%
38%
0.4%
21%
0.5%+
3%
0.3% 38%
0.2% 37%
0.4% 21%
0.1% 11%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Vol.
7%
0.0%
$37 Vol.
7%
0.1%
$78 Vol.
11%
0.2%
$602 Vol.
37%
0.3%
$481 Vol.
38%
0.4%
$110 Vol.
21%
0.5%+
$128 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, aligning with consensus and leaving services-driven price pressures elevated well above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. This outcome, alongside mixed CPI and PPI readings, has kept trader probabilities nearly even between 0.2% and 0.3% for August, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation is stabilizing or showing modest moderation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and consumption trends point to a similar range, while the September 30 release precedes the FOMC meeting and could influence rate-hike expectations priced into Treasury yields and the dollar. Persistent stickiness in core measures continues to anchor market-implied odds around these two outcomes.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,472Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, aligning with consensus and leaving services-driven price pressures elevated well above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. This outcome, alongside mixed CPI and PPI readings, has kept trader probabilities nearly even between 0.2% and 0.3% for August, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation is stabilizing or showing modest moderation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and consumption trends point to a similar range, while the September 30 release precedes the FOMC meeting and could influence rate-hike expectations priced into Treasury yields and the dollar. Persistent stickiness in core measures continues to anchor market-implied odds around these two outcomes.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,472Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, aligning with consensus and leaving services-driven price pressures elevated well above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. This outcome, alongside mixed CPI and PPI readings, has kept trader probabilities nearly even between 0.2% and 0.3% for August, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation is stabilizing or showing modest moderation. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and consumption trends point to a similar range, while the September 30 release precedes the FOMC meeting and could influence rate-hike expectations priced into Treasury yields and the dollar. Persistent stickiness in core measures continues to anchor market-implied odds around these two outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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