Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with March 2026 projections showing end-of-year PCE at 2.7%, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 75.5% trader-implied probability of no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent communications emphasize a data-dependent stance prioritizing disinflation progress before easing, while steady employment readings and limited signs of economic softening have kept cut odds low at 6.3% combined. Market pricing aligns with the Committee's March dot plot showing rates likely holding in the low-3% to mid-3% range through year-end, with any shift hinging on incoming CPI and payroll data before the September decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
$112,188 Vol.
$112,188 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
$112,188 Vol.
$112,188 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
$20,069 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$24,025 Vol.
5%
No change
$25,745 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$22,876 Vol.
19%
50+ bps increase
$19,723 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with March 2026 projections showing end-of-year PCE at 2.7%, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 75.5% trader-implied probability of no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent communications emphasize a data-dependent stance prioritizing disinflation progress before easing, while steady employment readings and limited signs of economic softening have kept cut odds low at 6.3% combined. Market pricing aligns with the Committee's March dot plot showing rates likely holding in the low-3% to mid-3% range through year-end, with any shift hinging on incoming CPI and payroll data before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$112,188Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with March 2026 projections showing end-of-year PCE at 2.7%, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 75.5% trader-implied probability of no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent communications emphasize a data-dependent stance prioritizing disinflation progress before easing, while steady employment readings and limited signs of economic softening have kept cut odds low at 6.3% combined. Market pricing aligns with the Committee's March dot plot showing rates likely holding in the low-3% to mid-3% range through year-end, with any shift hinging on incoming CPI and payroll data before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$112,188Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with March 2026 projections showing end-of-year PCE at 2.7%, combined with a resilient labor market near 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 75.5% trader-implied probability of no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent communications emphasize a data-dependent stance prioritizing disinflation progress before easing, while steady employment readings and limited signs of economic softening have kept cut odds low at 6.3% combined. Market pricing aligns with the Committee's March dot plot showing rates likely holding in the low-3% to mid-3% range through year-end, with any shift hinging on incoming CPI and payroll data before the September decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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