Elevated inflation readings, with headline PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026 amid Middle East-related supply shocks, combined with a hawkish policy shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor trader expectations for one 25-basis-point hike this year as the modal outcome. The labor market remains stable near full employment with unemployment at 4.1-4.2% and solid job gains, while GDP expands at a moderate pace, supporting the view that rates at the 3.50-3.75% target range may need adjustment rather than cuts. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with roughly 59% pricing a September move, though economists largely forecast a hold through year-end. The September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could refine the 2026 rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$287,566 Vol.
$287,566 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.9%
$287,566 Vol.
$287,566 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0 (0 bps)
$101,669 Vol.
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,179 Vol.
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Vol.
23%
3 (75 bps)
$31,570 Vol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings, with headline PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026 amid Middle East-related supply shocks, combined with a hawkish policy shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor trader expectations for one 25-basis-point hike this year as the modal outcome. The labor market remains stable near full employment with unemployment at 4.1-4.2% and solid job gains, while GDP expands at a moderate pace, supporting the view that rates at the 3.50-3.75% target range may need adjustment rather than cuts. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with roughly 59% pricing a September move, though economists largely forecast a hold through year-end. The September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could refine the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$287,566Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings, with headline PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026 amid Middle East-related supply shocks, combined with a hawkish policy shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor trader expectations for one 25-basis-point hike this year as the modal outcome. The labor market remains stable near full employment with unemployment at 4.1-4.2% and solid job gains, while GDP expands at a moderate pace, supporting the view that rates at the 3.50-3.75% target range may need adjustment rather than cuts. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with roughly 59% pricing a September move, though economists largely forecast a hold through year-end. The September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could refine the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$287,566Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, with headline PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026 amid Middle East-related supply shocks, combined with a hawkish policy shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, anchor trader expectations for one 25-basis-point hike this year as the modal outcome. The labor market remains stable near full employment with unemployment at 4.1-4.2% and solid job gains, while GDP expands at a moderate pace, supporting the view that rates at the 3.50-3.75% target range may need adjustment rather than cuts. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with roughly 59% pricing a September move, though economists largely forecast a hold through year-end. The September 16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could refine the 2026 rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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