Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty after Q2 expanded just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—below consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure amid cost pressures, with net exports providing the main offset. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because forecasters diverge on whether Middle East-related energy price spikes will further erode household purchasing power and business sentiment, or if resilient exports and a still-tight labor market (unemployment steady at 2.5%) can sustain modest positive annualized growth. The Bank of Japan's gradual normalization, with the policy rate at 1% and potential September action, adds another variable by influencing borrowing costs and the yen. Upcoming Q3 flash data and inflation prints will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward contraction or modest expansion ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
-0.8%–0.0% 29%
0.8%–1.6% 27%
1.6%–2.4% 26%
NOVO
NOVO
16 nov 2026
<-2.4%
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
25%
-0.8%–0.0%
29%
0.0%–0.8%
22%
0.8%–1.6%
27%
1.6%–2.4%
26%
2.4%–3.2%
11%
3.2%–4.0%
8%
4.0%+
9%
-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
-0.8%–0.0% 29%
0.8%–1.6% 27%
1.6%–2.4% 26%
NOVO
NOVO
16 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$0 Vol.
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$0 Vol.
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$0 Vol.
25%
-0.8%–0.0%
$0 Vol.
29%
0.0%–0.8%
$0 Vol.
22%
0.8%–1.6%
$0 Vol.
27%
1.6%–2.4%
$0 Vol.
26%
2.4%–3.2%
$0 Vol.
11%
3.2%–4.0%
$0 Vol.
8%
4.0%+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty after Q2 expanded just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—below consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure amid cost pressures, with net exports providing the main offset. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because forecasters diverge on whether Middle East-related energy price spikes will further erode household purchasing power and business sentiment, or if resilient exports and a still-tight labor market (unemployment steady at 2.5%) can sustain modest positive annualized growth. The Bank of Japan's gradual normalization, with the policy rate at 1% and potential September action, adds another variable by influencing borrowing costs and the yen. Upcoming Q3 flash data and inflation prints will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward contraction or modest expansion ranges.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
16 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty after Q2 expanded just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—below consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure amid cost pressures, with net exports providing the main offset. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because forecasters diverge on whether Middle East-related energy price spikes will further erode household purchasing power and business sentiment, or if resilient exports and a still-tight labor market (unemployment steady at 2.5%) can sustain modest positive annualized growth. The Bank of Japan's gradual normalization, with the policy rate at 1% and potential September action, adds another variable by influencing borrowing costs and the yen. Upcoming Q3 flash data and inflation prints will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward contraction or modest expansion ranges.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$0Data de Término
16 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty after Q2 expanded just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—below consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure amid cost pressures, with net exports providing the main offset. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because forecasters diverge on whether Middle East-related energy price spikes will further erode household purchasing power and business sentiment, or if resilient exports and a still-tight labor market (unemployment steady at 2.5%) can sustain modest positive annualized growth. The Bank of Japan's gradual normalization, with the policy rate at 1% and potential September action, adds another variable by influencing borrowing costs and the yen. Upcoming Q3 flash data and inflation prints will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward contraction or modest expansion ranges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions