Recent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
47%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 Vol.
$32,916 Vol.
19 out 2026
<3.4%
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 Vol.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 Vol.
47%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 Vol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado Aberto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$32,916Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$32,916Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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