Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Crescimento negativo do PIB em 2026?
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 jan 2027
Sim
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 jan 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions