The July 2026 jobs report, which showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, stands as the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the August print. With the labor market exhibiting signs of cooling amid modest hiring trends and stable participation rates, consensus forecasts cluster around 4.1–4.2%, producing tightly matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5% and 27.5% respectively. Broader dynamics, including potential rebounds in labor force participation and seasonal adjustments, introduce uncertainty that could push the rate higher or sustain the recent dip, while the August employment data release on September 4 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping revisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
20%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
≤3.8%
$110 Vol.
1%
3.9%
$112 Vol.
2%
4.0%
$554 Vol.
13%
4.1%
$2,349 Vol.
32%
4.2%
$1,054 Vol.
28%
4.3%
$639 Vol.
20%
4.4%
$146 Vol.
5%
4.5%
$132 Vol.
3%
≥4.6%
$112 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 jobs report, which showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, stands as the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the August print. With the labor market exhibiting signs of cooling amid modest hiring trends and stable participation rates, consensus forecasts cluster around 4.1–4.2%, producing tightly matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5% and 27.5% respectively. Broader dynamics, including potential rebounds in labor force participation and seasonal adjustments, introduce uncertainty that could push the rate higher or sustain the recent dip, while the August employment data release on September 4 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$5,208Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 jobs report, which showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, stands as the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the August print. With the labor market exhibiting signs of cooling amid modest hiring trends and stable participation rates, consensus forecasts cluster around 4.1–4.2%, producing tightly matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5% and 27.5% respectively. Broader dynamics, including potential rebounds in labor force participation and seasonal adjustments, introduce uncertainty that could push the rate higher or sustain the recent dip, while the August employment data release on September 4 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$5,208Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The July 2026 jobs report, which showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, stands as the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the August print. With the labor market exhibiting signs of cooling amid modest hiring trends and stable participation rates, consensus forecasts cluster around 4.1–4.2%, producing tightly matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5% and 27.5% respectively. Broader dynamics, including potential rebounds in labor force participation and seasonal adjustments, introduce uncertainty that could push the rate higher or sustain the recent dip, while the August employment data release on September 4 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping revisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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