China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% and consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and ADB (centering near 4.4–4.7%) anchor trader pricing on the 4.0–5.0% band. Recent quarterly data reinforce this positioning: Q2 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years, as subdued household consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment outweighed resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing output. Policymakers have signaled modest fiscal support and counter-cyclical measures ahead of year-end, yet debt concerns limit aggressive stimulus scope. Structural headwinds, including weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, sustain expectations that annual growth will settle within the leading range while keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 6.7%
8,0–9,0% 1.4%
9,0%+ 1.2%
$879,899 Vol.
$879,899 Vol.
30 jan 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
89%
5,0–6,0%
7%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
1%
4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 6.7%
8,0–9,0% 1.4%
9,0%+ 1.2%
$879,899 Vol.
$879,899 Vol.
30 jan 2026
<1,0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$81,005 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0%
$220,228 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0%
$80,276 Vol.
7%
6,0-7,0%
$83,563 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$115,513 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% and consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and ADB (centering near 4.4–4.7%) anchor trader pricing on the 4.0–5.0% band. Recent quarterly data reinforce this positioning: Q2 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years, as subdued household consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment outweighed resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing output. Policymakers have signaled modest fiscal support and counter-cyclical measures ahead of year-end, yet debt concerns limit aggressive stimulus scope. Structural headwinds, including weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, sustain expectations that annual growth will settle within the leading range while keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$879,899Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% and consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and ADB (centering near 4.4–4.7%) anchor trader pricing on the 4.0–5.0% band. Recent quarterly data reinforce this positioning: Q2 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years, as subdued household consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment outweighed resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing output. Policymakers have signaled modest fiscal support and counter-cyclical measures ahead of year-end, yet debt concerns limit aggressive stimulus scope. Structural headwinds, including weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, sustain expectations that annual growth will settle within the leading range while keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$879,899Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% and consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and ADB (centering near 4.4–4.7%) anchor trader pricing on the 4.0–5.0% band. Recent quarterly data reinforce this positioning: Q2 GDP expanded 4.3% year-over-year, the slowest pace in over three years, as subdued household consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment outweighed resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing output. Policymakers have signaled modest fiscal support and counter-cyclical measures ahead of year-end, yet debt concerns limit aggressive stimulus scope. Structural headwinds, including weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, sustain expectations that annual growth will settle within the leading range while keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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