Recent US sanctions escalation and a naval blockade have driven the Iranian rial to record open-market lows near 2.02–2.06 million per USD in late August, fueled by halted oil exports, secondary sanctions targeting trade partners, and ongoing conflict strains since February. These pressures, including new measures announced by Treasury officials and expectations of further economic isolation, have accelerated depreciation amid high inflation and reduced foreign exchange inflows. Trader positioning reflects this trajectory, with the 2.2 million+ range leading at 42% as the consensus views sustained sanctions and fiscal stress as likely to push rates higher by end-September, while narrower bands around 2.0–2.2 million capture uncertainty over any diplomatic pauses or central bank interventions.