The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-26
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-26
$31,374 Vol.
$31,374 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
$31,374 Vol.
$31,374 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$15,967 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$15,408 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$31,374Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,374Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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