The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position. Eric Swalwell's resignation created a special election vacancy, and June primary results advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff, eliminating all Republican contenders from contention. This structure ensures the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the individual outcome, consistent with the district's consistent performance in prior cycles. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited to procedural anomalies or unforeseen candidate withdrawals before certification, as the underlying partisan composition leaves little room for crossover results.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara do CA-14
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara do CA-14
$35,739 Vol.
$35,739 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
97%
Partido Republicano
1%
$35,739 Vol.
$35,739 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$13,983 Vol.
97%
Partido Republicano
$21,756 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position. Eric Swalwell's resignation created a special election vacancy, and June primary results advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff, eliminating all Republican contenders from contention. This structure ensures the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the individual outcome, consistent with the district's consistent performance in prior cycles. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited to procedural anomalies or unforeseen candidate withdrawals before certification, as the underlying partisan composition leaves little room for crossover results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,739Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position. Eric Swalwell's resignation created a special election vacancy, and June primary results advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff, eliminating all Republican contenders from contention. This structure ensures the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the individual outcome, consistent with the district's consistent performance in prior cycles. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited to procedural anomalies or unforeseen candidate withdrawals before certification, as the underlying partisan composition leaves little room for crossover results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,739Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic tilt of California's 14th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic Party holds a commanding position. Eric Swalwell's resignation created a special election vacancy, and June primary results advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff, eliminating all Republican contenders from contention. This structure ensures the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the individual outcome, consistent with the district's consistent performance in prior cycles. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited to procedural anomalies or unforeseen candidate withdrawals before certification, as the underlying partisan composition leaves little room for crossover results.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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